| Week | Date | Result | Opponent | Score | ELO Before | ELO Change | ELO After | Win Prob |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Aug 29 2025 | L | Wake Forest | 9-10 | 1196.6 | +81.7 | 1278.3 | 11.0% |
| 3 | Sep 6 2025 | L | Indiana | 9-56 | 1278.3 | -34.8 | 1243.5 | 2.7% |
| 4 | Sep 13 2025 | W | Merrimack | 27-13 | 1243.5 | +19.3 | 1262.8 | 71.4% |
| 5 | Sep 20 2025 | W | Arkansas State | 28-21 | 1262.8 | +51.2 | 1314.0 | 27.6% |
| 6 | Sep 27 2025 | W | Middle Tennessee | 24-16 | 1314.0 | -0.7 | 1313.3 | 59.4% |
| 8 | Oct 9 2025 | W | Louisiana Tech | 35-7 | 1321.2 | +93.0 | 1414.2 | 19.8% |
| 10 | Oct 21 2025 | W | Florida International | 45-26 | 1409.8 | +41.2 | 1451.0 | 59.3% |
| 11 | Oct 28 2025 | W | UTEP | 33-20 | 1451.0 | +11.6 | 1462.6 | 66.0% |
| 12 | Nov 8 2025 | W | New Mexico State | 24-21 | 1462.6 | -8.5 | 1454.1 | 73.0% |
| 13 | Nov 15 2025 | L | Jacksonville State | 26-35 | 1454.1 | -14.7 | 1439.4 | 45.5% |
| 14 | Nov 22 2025 | W | Missouri State | 41-34 | 1439.4 | +5.1 | 1444.5 | 52.2% |
| 15 | Nov 29 2025 | W | Liberty | 48-42 | 1444.5 | +8.2 | 1452.7 | 50.5% |
| 16 | Dec 5 2025 | W | Jacksonville State | 19-15 | 1452.7 | +7.2 | 1459.9 | 46.9% |
| 18 | Dec 19 2025 | L | Western Michigan | 6-41 | 1458.3 | -46.5 | 1411.8 | 34.8% |